As always with Kim Jong Il, he’s not preparing for war, but the risk of confrontation is not excluded with a regime attempts constantly by the headlong rush. It is more of a diplomatic blackmail, to extort security guarantees and economic aid for a bloodless regime..
Phase verification of the dismantling of North Korea’s nuclear facilities.
It’s not just the U.S. that soiet embarrassed. China, neighbor and ally of North Korea does not like the unpredictable nature of his turbulent partner. History is loaded between the two countries since China has paid the blood money to support North Korea in the early 50-million dead, including Mao’s own son-and she remains his Main support notament by supplying it with fuel. But China wants stability more than anything in Asia for its economic development.
The escalation of tension will give diplomats at work. But it becomes increasingly difficult to conclude agreements which do not hold water when we go into the implementation phase. The military option was not possible with a nuclear weapons state (Iran observes the Korean Peninsula by almost…), it remains the negotiators to get back to work, with options reduced.
I’d say to read the article. For once we have a section on the North Korean geopolitical minimal information. The North Koreans do not want a military conflict. Kim Jong-il and military leaders want to just stay in power. A conflict would quickly lose their. In contrast, in the present case (for years actually) they always win: either they get aid to stop their program (while retaining the weapons already produced) or they continue and strengthen their deterrent (the coup person will not attack North Korea is not Iraq). The development of nuclear weapons and intercontinental missiles by North Korea is not to attack but to pursue a policy of blackmail / extortion.